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15th of November 2018

Real Estate

MBS RECAP: Bond Market Preparing For The Worst

With no intent of drawing any parallels to Hurricane Florence, bond markets are battening down their hatches in advance of a perfect storm of data and events.  These include economic reports in the coming days (PPI, CPI, Retail Sales), a healthy dose of supply (Treasury auctions and corporate debt issuance), and the European Central Bank announcement.  All of the above must be digested and dealt with in the first full week of September--a month that often marks a shift from the trading tone seen during the summer.

If all of the above events conspire against bonds, the net effect is quite negative--easily enough to push 10yr yields up and over 3%.  It's with that anxiety in mind that bonds continued their September sell-off today.  We'll need to work our way through those events before we can identify a turning point in the selling pressure.  It could begin as early as tomorrow, but we could also be heading into the weekend on Friday wondering if we're headed back toward long-term high yields.

MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live. MBS

FNMA 4.0

101-09 : -0-06


10 YR

2.9810 : +0.0440

Pricing as of 9/11/18 4:42PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates

2:58PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing

10:00AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Losses Extend After NYSE Open

MBS Live Chat Highlights

Matthew Graham  :  "Could easily break 3 if data is unfriendly."

David Rudnick  :  "do we break 3 again or bounce off it downwards... thoughts?"

Hugh W. Page  :  ""After last Friday morning’s employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.3 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 14.0 percent, respectively. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for August—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—declined from 1.11 to 0.41 after Friday's employment report.""

Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior Tuesday, Sep 11 10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) Jul 0.6 0.7 0.7 13:00 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 35 Wednesday, Sep 12 7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 231.4 7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 940.0 8:30 Producer Prices (%) Aug 0.2 0.0 8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* Aug 2.7 2.7 13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 23 Read More

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