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18th of November 2018

Forex



Oil Price Outlook Mired by Ongoing Oversold RSI Signal

Crude Oil Talking Points

Crude remains under pressure as the United States grants waivers on the Iran sanctions in an effort to curb energy prices, and oil remains vulnerable ahead of the weekend as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stubbornly sits in oversold territory for the first time since 2017.

Image of daily change for major financial marketsOil Price Outlook Mired by Ongoing Oversold RSI SignalImage of daily change for crude oil pricesImage of DailyFX economic calendar

Recent comments from President Donald Trumpsuggest the U.S. will continue to push for lower oil prices even after the mid-term elections as updates from the Department of Energy (DoE) indicate a further slowdown in demand, with crude inventories jumping another 5783K in the week ending November 2.

In response, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may stick to a ‘produce as much you can mode’ especially as the U.S. and China, the two largest consumers of oil, struggle to reach a trade agreement, and the pickup in volatility appears to be fueling a broader change in market behavior amid the ongoing shift in retail interest.

Image of IG client sentiment for crude oil

The IG Client Sentiment Report shows 82.6% of traders are still net-long crude, with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.73 to 1.In fact, traders have been net-long since October 11 when oil traded near the $71.00 mark even though price has moved 17.1% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% higher than yesterday and a whopping 26.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.5% higher than yesterday and 6.4% higher from last week.

The persistent accumulation in net-long interest provides a contrarian view to crowd sentiment as traders still attempt to fade the weakness in oil, and the broader outlook warns of a larger correction as crude snaps the upward trend from earlier this year. Moreover, the stickiness in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) warns of further losses as the oscillator continues to track the bearish formation carried over from the previous month and pushes deeper into oversold territory. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Crude Oil Daily ChartImage of crude oil daily chart Downside targets remain on the radar for crude following the break/close below the $62.10 (78.6% retracement) to $62.80 (38.2% retracement) region, with the recent series of lower highs & lows raising the risk for further losses. The Fibonacci overlap around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.30 (78.6% expansion) in now on the radar, which sits just above the 2018-low ($58.11), with the next downside hurdle coming in around the $55.00 (61.8% expansion) handle. Will keep a close eye on the RSI as it sits in oversold territory, with the oscillator at risk of flashing a bullish trigger once it snaps the bearish formation and climbs back above 30.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q4 Forecast for Oil

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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